Gun violence across America: Unexpected trends revealed by statistical analysis

Only a handful of U.S. states showed a surge in gun violence incidents in mid-2020 during civil unrest at the start of COVID-19 lockdowns and the murder of George Floyd, a new study finds.

Published today in Chaos, the study applied new data analysis techniques to identify and better understand shifts in gun violence patterns in the U.S. from 2018 to mid-2022.

Study co-authors Dr Nick James, University of Melbourne and Dr Max Menzies, Tsinghua University, said their findings counter public perceptions and media coverage of higher gun violence incidents across the country in mid-2020.

Dr James, research fellow at the Melbourne Centre for Data Science, said the study looked at April 2020 as a trigger point when U.S. media reported widespread violence and civil unrest due to COVID-19 lockdowns, George Floyd’s murder and the subsequent Black Lives Matter protests.

“Minnesota, where George Floyd was killed, experienced the greatest change in its gun violence behaviour immediately after Floyd’s death,” Dr James said.

“Prior to this event, Minnesota had experienced a decrease in gun violence incidents. This data highlights the complex social and cultural interplay of gun violence and social injustice within the U.S.”

The study analysed gun violence incidents on a state-by-state basis recorded by the Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit organisation that collects and verifies detailed, real-time data from law enforcement, government, and other commercial sources.

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